Screw the Oscars. All that awards ceremony represents is a bunch of blowhard movie industry types congratulating themselves on bourgeois trifling as “cinematography” and “original score.” Now, I don’t know about you, but for those us who are real (And I do mean “real” like “The Real World”, in the sense that we have to stop being polite, and start being real) we really just don’t have time for that kind of pretentious crap. Us Real Worlders, we don’t care who, as I understand it, pointed the camera at the prettiest crap. Or waved their baton in such a way as to inspire the violins to kick ass. Or whatever.

No, we like our movies like we like our food: in packages. And maybe with the word “extreme” on them somewhere. And with no goddamn carbohydrates. And, similarly, we like our awards ceremonies like we like our condiments: brightly coloured and with a lot of artificial sugar. It’s for that reason, among others, that I’ll take a ceremony with categories like “Best Fight” and “Best Kiss” over that Oscar stuff any day of the week. It speaks to the culture in a way that the Academy Awards never could.

So it is that the MTV Movie Awards are such an exciting night of television. Where else can you find the dizzying heights and the devastating lows that come from fan-voted awards, bizarre teenaged celebrity behaviour and a bunch of out-of-place old dudes looking happy that they’ve been given an awards statuette that looks like a bag of popcorn? Yes, the MTV Movie Awards represent a beautiful singularity, something matched only by the MTV Music Awards, which are, unfortunately, still months away from now.

Below are some of my predictions for this year’s show, which, for the first time, is being presented live. It’ll be the first year viewers around the world will be unaware of the winner of the prestigious “Best Villain” award in advance of its announcements. And it’ll also be the first year where people will probably swear on stage a lot and have it uncensored. It’s going to be great.

MTV Movie Awards 2007 Predictions

Best Movie

• 300
• Borat: Cultural Learnings of America For Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Kazahkstan
• Blades of Glory
• Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest
• Little Miss Sunshine

Sad realization: Only one of these movies was also nominated for the Best Picture Oscar. It is also potentially, depending on how much chemistry Will Ferrell and John Heder had as an ice dancing couple, the worst movie on this list.

But Little Miss Sunshine being stupid has been covered at length on this site, so let’s not belabour that point. What should be laboured, however, is the sheer diversity of this list. It’s like a potential list of movies to be featured in an update to Disney’s Great Movie Ride. You’ve got your bloody period picture, your edgy roadtrip comedy, your wacky buddy picture, your pirate/adventure deal, and, lastly, a movie about a bunch of jerks on a bus.

Should Win: Borat
Will Win: Little Miss Sunshine

Best Villain

• Bill Nighy, Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest
• Jack Nicholson, The Departed
• Meryl Streep, The Devil Wears Prada
• Rodrigo Santoro, 300
• Tobin Bell, Saw

I’d totally display an award for “Best Villain” in my house, were I to ever win one. If anyone deserves this award, it’s Meryl Streep. “Best Villain” is probably the last award she needs to complete her Hollywood dynasy. If she doesn’t win for Prada, expect her to take the role of the Mandarin in the Iron Man film just to give it another go next year.

Should Win: Jack Nicoholson
Will Win: Meryl Streep

Best Performance

• Johnny Depp, Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest
• Will Smith, The Pursuit of Happyness
• Gerard Butler, 300
• Keira Knightley, Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest
• Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls
• Beyoncé Knowles, Dreamgirls

What a diverse pool. Six nominees; four films! Truly something like this could only ever happen at the MTV Movie Awards. Conventional wisdom would point to Johnny Depp winning (and accepting live via satellite from the South of France or wherever) but given the current Johnny Depp Backlash, it seems unlikely. Will Smith is always a favourite, but given his gray hair he’s probably a better contender for the lifetime achievement award at this point. Beyoncé’s nom is just sort of weird, because I question what she actually added to Dreamgirls, aside from anchoring the totally crappy second half of the movie. So that makes it a toss-up between Gerard, Keira, and Jennifer.

Should Win: Will Smith
Will Win: Jennifer Hudson

Breakthrough Performance

• Abigail Breslin, Little Miss Sunshine
• Emily Blunt, The Devil Wears Prada
• Jaden Smith, The Pursuit of Happyness
• Justin Timberlake, Alpha Dog
• Columbus Short, Stomp the Yard
• Lena Headey, 300

What the hell is the criteria for this category? Justin Timberlake stands out like a sore thumb, like MTV realized they were going to be holding an awards ceremony and needed a reason to make sure Justin was there. In any case, I don’t think anyone saw Alpha Dog and thought “Hey, that Timberlake kid could really be something some day!”

The girl from Little Miss Sunshine will win, as she steamrolls her way along the exact same career path of various luminaries like That Kid from Curley Sue and Mara “Matilda” Wilson.

Should Win: Jaden Smith
Will Win: Abigail Breslin

Best Comedic Performance

• Sacha Baron Cohen, Borat
• Will Ferrell, Blades of Glory
• Emily Blunt, The Devil Wears Prada
• Ben Stiller, Night at the Museum
• Adam Sandler, Click

This category is like “Ferrell, Sandler, Stiller and Others” each and every year. I mean, seriously, did Night at the Museum really have any appeal to the MTV crowd? It seems more likely that they’re just voting for him out of habit.

Regardless, Borat’s going to win. He deserves to, too. Because Sacha Baron Cohen spent months honing a nuanced, satirical character, putting himself through any number of physical and emotional hardships and spent literally months in a smelly suit selling his movie, only to have the audience react with “Haha, Foreigners do talk funny!” The least they can do is give him an award for it.

I really hope he doesn’t show up in character, though. Or that maybe he shows up as Ali G or something. That’d be better.

Should Win: Sacha Baron Cohen
Will Win: Sacha Baron Cohen

Best Kiss

• Will Ferrell and Sacha Baron Cohen, Talledega Nights
• Marlon Wayans and Brittany Daniel, Little Man
• Mark Wahlberg and Elizabeth Banks, Invincible
• Columbus Short and Meaghan Good, Stomp the Yard
• Cameron Diaz and Jude Law, The Holiday

Now we’re getting to the good categories. First, though, did I miss Stomp the Yard becoming some sort of well-received movie? It was about dancing in schoolyards, right? Is that something that’s really cool nowadays? I need to pay more attention.

Okay, with the Best Kiss category, first you have to remove all the boring, heterosexual kisses. They are not hilarious. So bye, Mark and Liz, Cameron and Jude, Columbus and Meaghan. That leaves two. I think we can eliminate the Little Man nomination, as there’s kind of a weird incestuous vibe there (I assume — it was a midget posing as a baby kissing his adoptive mother, right?) which could upset the older voting bloc. By which I mean those over 22. That leaves Will and Sacha, proving once again that two guys kissing is really funny, provided they don’t actually mean it. Then it’s just gross.

Should Win: I don’t know.
Will Win: Ferrell and Cohen, Talledega Nights

Best Fight

• Gerard Butler versus ‘The Uber Immortal’, 300
• Sacha Baron Cohen versus Ken Davitian, Borat
• Jack Black & Hector Jemenez versus Los Duendes, Nacho Libre
• Uma Thurman versus Anna Faris, My Super Ex-Girlfriend
• Will Ferrell versus Jon Heder, Blades of Glory

The second most prestigious category of the night (After Best Kiss) is a tough one. First, my questions: Anna Faris was in My Super Ex-Girlfriend? How does one become an Uber Immortal? Is that, like, MORE than Immortal? Lastly, is the description of the Blades of Glory fight as “Ron Burgundy versus Napoleon Dynamite” really accurate? Isn’t like me saying Heat contained an epic gunfight between Vito and Michael Corleone?

In any case, the two naked foreign guys wrestling through a hotel is going to win.

Should Win: I don’t know!
Will Win: The Borat fight.

Best Summer Movie You Haven’t Seen

• Rush Hour 3
• Hairspray
• Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer
• Evan Almighty
• Transformers
• Harry Potter & The Order of the Phoenix
• I Now Pronounce You Chuck & Larry
• The Simpsons Movie

This is a revolutionary idea: future awards. I can’t even imagine how the acceptance speech is supposed to go. “Thanks for believing in us!” or something, I suppose. But, still. It’s such an odd idea, made even odder by MTV’s description of the award: “Who Cares about Global Warming? This summer’s all about cross-dressers, karate and sci-fi! We kid. Global Warming BAD. But, hey, karate!”

It’s that kind of commitment to lunacy that keeps me going.

I’m making a strong prediction for Rush Hour 3. It has everything kids love today. The number three. People with funny accents. French bashing. Gay bashing. Gay French bashing. A black character seemingly incredulous over the idea of an Asian man speaking French. It’s a real tour de force.

Should Win: Once
Will Win: Rush Hour 3

MTV also has a few special awards on their nomination page. But I have to leave some things as surprises. With host Sarah Silverman, be sure to expect any number of uncomfortable references to her having anal sex with Jimmy Kimmel. And, also, a joke about Paris Hilton being in jail soon made within the first 30 seconds of the telecast.

I’m pretty excited about it.

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